Just as FCF predicted, the three major airlines, American, Delta, and United, have finally caved and reduced high-priced ($4,000+) walk-up fares (meaning no advance purchase required) by as much as $1,500 (35%).

We also see major changes in American’s and United’s advance-purchase requirement, formerly 30 days, but now seven, with a fare reduction of up to $1,800 (60%).

Below is a deep dive on what fares and restrictions each airline now offers on its Transcon route.

AMERICAN’S FARE EVOLUTION

• Last month AA came out with a special 7-day advance purchase fare of $1,196 round-trip from SFO to JFK, matching JetBlue’s advance-purchase window (no minimum stay required).

• Walk-up fares also dropped on the SFO-JFK and LAX-JFK route from as much as $4,390 round-trip to $2,834 (requires a Saturday-night stay, otherwise about $400 more), a difference of $1,556.

• LAX-JFK 30-day advance purchase fares have not changed ($1,228, Saturday night stay required; otherwise about $200 more), but 21-day advance purchase fares have dropped from the $1,850 to the $1,450 range (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $600 more).

• LAX-JFK 14-day advance-purchase fares fell from $2,450 to $2,050 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $500 more).

• LAX-JFK seven-day advance-purchase fares dropped from $3,000 to $2,500, a $500 drop (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $300 more). Three-day advance purchase fares are extinct.

UNITED’S FARE EVOLUTION

• United followed (as is usually the case) AA by reducing its 30-day advance purchase window for the lowest fare to seven days, then went one better by offering the fare from both LAX and SFO to New York (Newark). United’s seven-day advance-purchase transcon fare has fallen from about $3,000 in January to $1,226, a drop of about $1,800 (no minimum stay required).

• United’s round-trip, walk-up fares on SFO-Newark and LAX-Newark have dropped from $4,390 to $2,834 with a Saturday-night stay requirement (otherwise about $400 more), a difference of $1,556.

DELTA’S FARE EVOLUTION

• Used to being the front runner, it is now running behind, having not changed its lowest 30-day advance purchase fares or its advance purchase window ($1,228, Saturday night stay required; otherwise about $200 more).

• Delta dropped its walk-up fare on SFO-JFK and LAXJFK from $4,038 round-trip last June to $2,834 this month (Saturday-night stay required, otherwise about $400 more), a difference of $1,204, the same as AA and United.

• Matching AA, Delta’s 21-day advance purchase fare from LAX and SFO has dropped from about $1,850 to $1,450 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $600 more), a 20% drop.

• Delta’s 14-day advance-purchase fares fell from about $2,450 to $2,050 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $500 more), a $400 drop.

• LAX/SFO-JFK seven-day advance-purchase are now around $2,500 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $300 more), a $500 drop.

JETBLUE’S FARE EVOLUTION

• A general fare increase of about $50, but still offers the lowest walk-up fare starting at $1,948, $900 less than the three majors (no minimum stay required on premium fares).

VIRGIN AMERICAN’S FARE EVOLUTION

• No change, despite inferior seat. Pricing itself out of the transcon market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

We think that Delta will match AA and United in reducing its advance-purchase requirement for the lowest fare from 30 to 7 days. More fare reductions are coming on higher priced tickets on American and Delta on the LAXJFK route. Plus, walk-up fares on the major three will likely see another drop. Also, look for JetBlue to start imposing more fare restrictions and minor fare increases, too. The result: the huge fare difference between the major three and Jetblue will disappear

Transcon Fare Spiral: Los Angeles – New York

Walk-up fare requires a Saturday-night stay, otherwise $400 more. *New 7-day advance-purchase fare does not require a minimum stay. Newark flight, not JFK.

Transcon Fare Spiral: San Francisco – New York

Walk-up fare requires a Saturday-night stay, otherwise $400 more. *New 7-day advance-purchase fare does not require a minimum stay. Newark flight, not JFK.